5A · 6-team state bracket · 2026 season
The PIAA bracket (neutral sites) is run over each district/region's champion. Districts with a confirmed playoff format use their full-season simulated champion odds (so state odds carry district uncertainty); others use the top-Elo team as a point estimate. Updates as the season is played.
| # | Contender | From | Record | Elo | Title % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twin Valley | D3 | 0-0 | 1834 | 33.6% |
| 2 | Peters Township | D7 | 0-0 | 1816 | 29.1% |
| 3 | Southern Lehigh | D11 | 0-0 | 1790 | 10.1% |
| 4 | Imhotep Institute Charter | D12 | 0-0 | 1725 | 9.0% |
| 5 | Springfield (Delco) | D1 | 0-0 | 1784 | 5.2% |
| 6 | Hollidaysburg Area | D6 | 0-0 | 1737 | 4.8% |
| 7 | West Chester Rustin | D1 | 0-0 | 1749 | 2.9% |
| 8 | Chester | D1 | 0-0 | 1722 | 2.0% |
| 9 | Strath Haven | D1 | 0-0 | 1691 | 1.2% |
| 10 | Unionville | D1 | 0-0 | 1601 | 0.4% |
| 11 | Garnet Valley | D1 | 0-0 | 1621 | 0.4% |
| 12 | Wissahickon | D1 | 0-0 | 1582 | 0.3% |
| 13 | Penncrest | D1 | 0-0 | 1597 | 0.3% |
| 14 | Kennett | D1 | 0-0 | 1579 | 0.2% |
| 15 | Upper Moreland | D1 | 0-0 | 1545 | 0.1% |
| 16 | Upper Perkiomen | D1 | 0-0 | 1541 | 0.1% |
Full-season Monte Carlo (20,000sims): replays the schedule for seed uncertainty, then runs each district's exact bracket (higher seed hosts). Confirmed formats only.
| Team | Seed | Berth | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Springfield (Delco) | 4.2 | 98% | 33% | 21.4% |
| West Chester Rustin | 5.9 | 93% | 25% | 15.0% |
| Chester | 5.9 | 94% | 22% | 11.9% |
| Strath Haven | 7.5 | 86% | 18% | 9.3% |
Each district/region's playoff simulated as a seeded bracket of its top teams (field size from the PIAA bid allocation, 16 total; higher seed hosts). The winner advances to the state bracket above. Approximate — exact district formats vary.
| Unionville | 7.7 | 85% | 14% | 6.9% |
| Wissahickon | 6.1 | 92% | 13% | 6.0% |
| Garnet Valley | 7.8 | 85% | 12% | 5.7% |
| Penncrest | 8.4 | 84% | 10% | 4.3% |
| Kennett | 9.0 | 76% | 10% | 4.3% |
| Upper Moreland | 7.3 | 88% | 8% | 3.2% |
| Upper Perkiomen | 7.5 | 85% | 8% | 3.0% |
| Marple Newtown | 10.6 | 45% | 3% | 1.2% |
| Cheltenham | 10.4 | 55% | 3% | 1.1% |
| West Chester East | 10.1 | 57% | 3% | 1.0% |
| Oxford Area | 10.9 | 46% | 3% | 1.0% |
| West Chester Henderson | 10.3 | 57% | 3% | 1.0% |
| Academy Park | 10.4 | 46% | 2% | 0.8% |
| Upper Dublin | 11.3 | 40% | 2% | 0.7% |
| Interboro | 11.0 | 40% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Hatboro Horsham | 10.8 | 43% | 1% | 0.4% |
| Great Valley | 11.3 | 33% | 1% | 0.3% |
| Phoenixville Area | 11.4 | 33% | 1% | 0.2% |
| Upper Merion Area | 10.9 | 39% | 1% | 0.2% |
| Lower Merion | 11.8 | 24% | 1% | 0.2% |
| Methacton | 11.5 | 27% | 1% | 0.2% |
| Radnor | 12.1 | 16% | 0% | 0.0% |
| Pottstown | 11.6 | 22% | 0% | 0.0% |
| Harriton | 12.6 | 11% | 0% | 0.0% |
