4A · 10-team state bracket · 2026 season
The PIAA bracket (neutral sites) is run over each district/region's champion. Districts with a confirmed playoff format use their full-season simulated champion odds (so state odds carry district uncertainty); others use the top-Elo team as a point estimate. Updates as the season is played.
| # | Contender | From | Record | Elo | Title % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wyomissing Area | D3 | 0-0 | 1731 | 30.7% |
| 2 | Shamokin Area | D4 | 0-0 | 1788 | 19.0% |
| 3 | McKeesport Area | D7 | 0-0 | 1699 | 13.1% |
| 4 | North Pocono | D2 | 0-0 | 1710 | 12.8% |
| 5 | North Schuylkill | D11 | 0-0 | 1675 | 10.0% |
| 6 | Cardinal O'Hara | D12 | 0-0 | 1679 | 6.6% |
| 7 | General McLane | D10 | 0-0 | 1651 | 4.0% |
| 8 | Clearfield Area | D9 | 0-0 | 1598 | 1.7% |
| 9 | Claysburg Kimmel | D6 | 0-0 | 1578 | 0.9% |
| 10 | Pope John Paul II | D1 | 0-0 | 1648 | 0.8% |
| 11 | Bishop Shanahan | D1 | 0-0 | 1601 | 0.4% |
Full-season Monte Carlo (20,000sims): replays the schedule for seed uncertainty, then runs each district's exact bracket (higher seed hosts). Confirmed formats only.
| Team | Seed | Berth | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Shanahan | 2.3 | 73% | 43% | 25.4% |
| Pope John Paul II | 2.5 | 63% | 38% | 23.1% |
| Lower Moreland | 2.4 | 69% | 33% | 15.3% |
| Chichester | 2.4 | 60% | 30% | 14.3% |
Each district/region's playoff simulated as a seeded bracket of its top teams (field size from the PIAA bid allocation, 16 total; higher seed hosts). The winner advances to the state bracket above. Approximate — exact district formats vary.
| Pottsgrove | 2.4 | 69% | 30% | 12.2% |
| Springfield Township | 2.9 | 45% | 18% | 7.4% |
| Sun Valley | 3.0 | 21% | 7% | 2.4% |
